What Will the Olympics Mean for China?
A Conversation with Professor Andrew Nathan

Andrew J. Nathan has been a China scholar and human rights advocate for more than 35 years. With the Olympics quickly approaching, Nathan, the Class of 1919 Professor of Political Science, took the opportunity to discuss the Beijing Olympics, describing them as one of the most political Olympic games in at least a generation.

Professor Andrew J. Nathan discusses the potential upside and downside of China hosting the Olympics and Beijing's promises about human rights. (2:23)

这是在哥伦比亚大学的官网主页上头条发现的，美国民众对这次北京奥运会的关注度可见一斑。美国人眼中关于北京奥运会的积极面、消极面。就是我看着看着怎么不对了，这位China scholar的教授的很多话 ironic得厉害。很多时候的分析是一种看笑话的心态。有些部分又无可厚非，也有慨恳中切的一面。这时候作为中国人会有种说不出的酸楚。

那天听了杨澜和北京奥组委的高层的《非常记忆》的谈话，诚实地说就拿中国拿北京自己和自己比的话，我们都因奥运会进步了很多。美国人跟我们谈人权，关起门来自己说，怎样跟一群国民素质不过关的人去说人权？就像在初三第一节化学课上跟同学说诺贝尔化学奖的技术是个什么样的过程。 美国人说中国人大多是农民。。。我们很难申辩什么，这不仅仅指“农民”的职业。

仍旧欣喜地看到不管我们最初是农民还是渔民，因为北京奥运，因为上海世博，我们的眼镜慢慢睁开，我们在进步。这是需要时间的，有一天，我们也会开始为别国的“人权问题”指点下谜经。

我翻译了下后面三段，懒人可以直接看翻译。

Q. What objectives does the Chinese government expect to achieve as it raises a curtain on the Beijing Olympics?

A. The potential upsides for the Chinese government of the games going well are great. They can present an image of their country as civilized, powerful, wealthy, sophisticated, well organized…. It can increase China’s soft power; it can increase its prestige. And I think that is what they are hoping for. And not only toward foreign audiences, but it can send a message to the Chinese audience. They can say, “Our government can manage this, and we can be respected by the whole world.” So the upsides for the Chinese government are very appealing.

Q. What fears do the Chinese have about hosting the Olympic Games?

A. They are also very anxious about the potential downsides of something going wrong. What they seem to be worried about most is a terrorist incident, and every government throughout the world is worried about that, so it’s normal they would have measures in place to prevent a terrorist incident. But I think they’re not sure who might produce this terrorist incident…The security mentality of the Chinese regime would be to think anyone could engage in such an incident. They would question what this group would do or what would that movement do. Chinese thinking is that almost anyone would engage in terrorism. Another feature of the thinking by the Chinese regime is that they are very security-minded and risk averse. The [security] continuum goes over to unfurling a flag, some sort of peaceful expression which in the U.S. or Europe is a protected form of free speech. But the Chinese thinking is very risk averse. They want to prevent anything that doesn’t look right from happening.

Q. As part of their bid to host the Games, China promised to improve human rights and the environment. Given the recent events in Tibet and ongoing air and water pollution problems, can the Chinese unequivocally state they have kept their promises?

A. When Beijing bid for the Olympics and were awarded them, they made formal and informal promises. The formal promises have never been made public—it’s a secret document. But much has been said about all the things that would be achieved in the course of these Olympics. Some of it is had to do with the environment. But it remains to be seen if the skies will be clear and the air will be good to breathe on those particular days in August. Nonetheless, the truth aside, apart from those 13 days in August, the environment in Beijing continues to be very bad. I understand that’s a huge problem that’s not something that can be fixed overnight, but I think it is disappointing what they have done.

The other area where promises were made was the broad area of human rights. Yet in the process of building the Olympic venues and building the hotels and so forth, human rights have been violated just in the building. It’s very ironic that the rights of the construction workers, the rights of the people who were living in those areas that were cleared to make these venues. In the lead-up to the Olympics, the government has been cleaning the streets of the city and cleaning up all the dissidents so that nothing will go wrong that would embarrass the regime.

Q. China’s history of participating in the Olympics Games has been spotty for many different reasons. Most of the Western sports featured in the Games are not part of China’s culture or history. So why does the government choose to aggressively pursue, not only medals, but moreover, gold medals in Olympic sports?

A: China is an ancient civilization, and they have their own traditions of body cultivation and health practices such as martial arts, qi-gong, and shadow boxing…but they don’t have traditions of basketball or stickball or track and field. Those were introduced in the 1920s, ‘30s, and ‘40s by Western missionaries and the YMCA as a measure to allow China to enter into the international sports movement…. But these sports have not spread throughout the country. Ping pong is a very popular sport. Most Chinese are peasants and are still engaged in manual labor. People are not sedentary and do not go to the gym. The government has invested and runs schools and training camps for talented kids…. They see it as a form of development and national pride, as well as a form of diplomacy. In the last Olympics, the Chinese took the second most medals, and they hope to exceed that achievement in this Olympics.

中国是一个古老的文明，他们有自己的儒雅、健康的活动的传统，比如军事艺术、轻功、太极等等，但是他们没有传统的篮球、棍棒球或者田径。那些都是20世纪20、30、40年代由西方传教士和基督教青年会传入并且作为测试，允许中国参加国际体育项目。但是这些运动都没有普及到全国。只有乒乓是一个非常大众化的运动。大部分中国人都是未受教育的农民，仍旧从事手工劳动。人们不会长时间坐着，所以也不用去体育馆。政府投资经营学校和训练基地来培养孩子。他们把这些认为是发展和民族荣誉，和他们的外交方式一样。在上一次奥运会上，中国得到了奖牌榜的第二名，他们希望在这次奥运会上能超越这个成绩。

Q. President Bush has said that he will go to the Olympic Games as a spectator, while the British Prime Minister, the President of France and the Chancellor of Germany have indicated they are not likely to attend the opening ceremonies because of their concerns about human rights abuses in China. How do you think President Bush will be viewed at the Games?

A. The IOC and the Beijing Olympic Committee have always taken the position that we shouldn’t mix sports and politics and yet clearly the Olympics is a very, very political event and especially this year, perhaps more than in most recent years…. This is a politically significant event, and I think Bush shipping on to the position that as he says “sports is sports” and is not politics, makes it more political. That just shows that he’s buying into the notion that it has nothing to do with human rights, it has nothing to do with China’s international position, and he’s endorsing in that sense the policy of the Chinese regime. They’ll certainly make use of that…. They will feature it in their domestic media, and the message won’t be lost either on the Chinese people or globally that Bush basically endorses the line of the Chinese regime on the fact that human rights should not be featured.

国际奥委会和北京奥委会经常处在一个把体育和政治混淆的位置，而我们并不想这样。尤其是今年，或者最近几年都使奥运会明显得成了非常非常具有政治意味的事件。这是个政治的壮举。我觉得布什总统是把自己放在一个就像他说的位置，“体育就是体育”不是政治。这表示他的主张和人权无关，和中国的国际地位无关，也和是否赞同中国政治制度无关。他们（中国）当然会利用这些。。。他们会以此放到国内媒体，不论是中国人还是全世界都会觉得布什基本上赞同了中国政体的路线，却没有提及本应该提及的“人权”。

Q. Will you watch the Beijing Olympic Games?

A. I will be checking my e-mail rapid notification to see if any events happen during the Olympics where they cut to Tiananmen Square or cut to some place where something unexpected happens. But I’ll be surprised if it happens because they have the place locked down. I don’t think there’s going to be any unscripted events. But we have to watch and see what happens and how they handle it. How quick they get the police to the scene and how they allow journalists to cover it. I will be keenly interested in that. One of the stories everybody will be watching is the air in the city. I anticipate they will have it cleaned up. I think it will be sort of a no-story story. The dog didn’t bark and the air wasn’t polluted—that’s what I most likely expect.

我会不停地检查我的邮箱去看看在奥运期间，天安门广场或者别的场所是否会有不想发生的事。他们已经把城市锁起来了，如果发生的话我会非常惊喜的。我不认为会发生出人意料的事件。但是我们还是翘首以待会发生什么，以及他们会怎么处理。他们调动警力到现场有多快，怎样允许记者去报道。我对这些比较感兴趣。北京的空气是大家都会去关注的“传奇”之一，我期待他们会把它弄干净，我觉得这还是有可能实现的“传奇”。狗不叫了空气不污染了，这是我最期待的。